Thursday, June 2, 2011

Ricky Rubio


The news that Ricky Rubio has decided to join the Minnesota Timberwolves next season will impact the NBA Draft in a number of interesting ways. The Timberwolves who are holding onto the #2 overall pick in the June 23rd NBA Draft have been looking at their options in the trade market and with Rubio now in tow the Wolves now have a few different priorities.
#1 – The Wolves still want to trade down, mainly because they believe they can convert the #2, a pick they do not need, into two assets. The Wolves have been looking at deals that would move them out of the lottery completely as well as a scenarios that would be move them down a little further in the top ten.
With Point guard now crossed off the list, the Wolves are now focusing on big men and perimeter scorers.
Arizona forward Derrick Williams is still a consideration if the Wolves cannot find a deal, but sources reached last night said they doubted seriously that the Timberwolves would draft at the #2 spot and that they have been requesting workouts with players outside of the top 3 discussion signaling they are doing more than just due diligence.
#2 – The Johnny Flynn era is over. Flynn was a reach when the Wolves drafted him in 2009 with the #4 overall pick, but if you look at the big picture the Wolves had a pretty good feel for the Rubio scenario and Flynn was more of a Band-Aid until Rubio arrived. With Ricky on his way this season Johnny Flynn is not only on the trade market, he is expected to be traded before the NBA Draft and could be part of a deal that includes the #2 pick to return more value to Minnesota.
Flynn's name was kicked around about at the NBA trade deadline this year, so this spilt was a long time in the making.
Lastly – The Wolves have other assets on the market. When you are 17-65 you cannot fall in love with players. Sources close to the situation said recently that as much as Team President David Kahn likes his core players, if drafting Derrick Williams makes his team better he would be open to trading Wesley Johnson or Michael Beasley if it returned a legit star.
The Wolves have roughly $3.7 million in available cap space, meaning they can take on more salary than they send. If The Wolves can flip Johnson or Beasley and other assets into a player like Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala or similar high dollar veteran player, they are open for business.
With Ricky Rubio now off the table, the Wolves next order of business if to determine where they go in the draft and that could set a lot of other things in motion.
Today's Labor Word Is Progress: The NBA and its' players met in Miami yesterday for what NBA Commissioner David Stern called a "full-blown" negotiating session. The goal of the meeting between the bulk of the NBA Owners' Labor Committee and the NBA Players' Association committee is to try to avoid a work stoppage in the NBA and catastrophic damage to the game when it's at its highest point in recent years.
Both sides agreed that the talks were productive and that further talks seem justified.
Players' Association director Billy Hunter told reporters that additional sessions were planned for Dallas next week and that if enough progress was made that his group was prepared to add additional sessions to the weeks' events.
During the last negotiating session it's believed the NBA Players presented an alternative plan to the Owners which is believed to be what the Owners and Players were talking through yesterday.
The exact details of the Players' offer are unclear and well-guarded, but it's believed to have an alternative to a hard salary cap, but offers to radically reduce the out of control spending the owners fell they have to reing in for a number of reasons.
The Players are also reportedly willing to budge off their 57% of revenue guarantee which would include additional expense deductions being removed from the revenue split formula, which would provide additional savings to the owners.
Under the current system NBA Players as a whole are guaranteed to receive 57% of revenue, which in and of itself is a hard cap, whether anyone wants to admit it. The Players seem willing to reduce their percentage share, mainly because they know that business is going upwards and whatever percentage they give back, they likely return in real dollars as things improve.
Last year the NBA is believed to have booked in just over $4 billion in revenue; putting the Players' share at roughly $2.28 billion in salary and benefits. The NBA Players association is said to be willing to drop that percentage to 55%, maybe even as low as 53% if the NBA Owners will keep much of the existing system in place.
If the Players share is recalculated at 55%, their share would be $2.2 billion or an $80 million reduction. If The Players reduced their share to 53%, their share would drop to $2.12 billion or a $160 million savings.
Reduction of revenue share, combined with additional deductions allowed for capital improvement costs could swing the revenue bar closer to $300 million, and that's what NBA sources say has to come out of this labor deal.
The optimism coming out of yesterday's meetings is good, because as NBA Commissioner David Stern said on Tuesday, if a lockout hits it will be "destructive for our business".
Here is hoping reasonable people can make a reasonable deal.
The Rise Of Jimmer: BYU's Jimmer Fredette continues to impress everywhere he's been and just as he did during the college basketball season Jimmer continues to collect fans and admirers, except this time those fans are NBA decision makers.
Based on the buzz Jimmer is creating, his draft stock is not only on the rise, he may unseat players at the top of the board that are projected to be better NBA players.

The Sacramento Kings are said to be gushing over Jimmer and at #7, that would be an amazing jump for a players who struggled to guard college level talent. Jimmer's range and tenacity is unquestioned, so for a team that doesn't play much defense now, adding Jimmer make sense in that defense is not a priority in Sacramento so Jimmer fits.
The Utah Jazz at #12 are very high on Jimmer not only as a player but as a box-office darling. Jimmer would love to be in Utah and says it would be a great fit, however if Utah decides to pass #12, the odds Phoenix passes at #13 are pretty slim.
The Suns like Jimmer a lot, but with so much emphasis coming out of Phoenix being on improving the defense, drafting Jimmer would be as far away from that stated goal as you can get. Steve Nash is not getting any younger so Jimmer would be a logical next step especially considering the Suns still don't have a feel for what they will do with Aaron Brooks.
The Houston Rockets at #14 say they will take best available player, however the biggest need the Rockets have is Small Forward and there are a number of them that fit Houston better than Jimmer.
The Indiana Pacers have serious eyes for Jimmer, with sources saying they could move up to obtain him, especially if he slides past Sacramento at #7. The Pacers hold the 15th overall selection and Jimmer seems to be very high on their draft board.
New York Knick fans would love to see Jimmer playing at 2 Penn Plaza next season, but the odds the Knicks have a shot at Jimmer at #17 are extremely slim.
It looks like Jimmer Fredette is again the buzz of basketball; the question is how how can the buzz get him drafted? Today it looks like his ceiling is #7 and his floor is #17, with a number of stops on the way down.
NBA Chats: There will be two NBA Chats today starting with Stephen Brotherston at 12pm EST. Stephen covers the Toronto Raptors for HOOPSWORLD, so get your coaching questions in now. HOOPSWORLD's Lang Greene will host the late day chat at 8pm EST.

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